Projecting DeMarcus Lawrence’s 2018 Sack Totals: Statistical Support for the Franchise Tag in 2018

There are equal reasons to be both skeptical and optimistic that Lawrence can maintain the dominating level of play he exhibited in 2017 going forward.  Last year was not simply Lawrence’s best year, it was a statistical outlier.  An anomaly that occurred during a contract year.  By way of example, in Lawrence’s first 3 years in Dallas he combined for only 9 sacks in 32 games.  That is one sack every 3.55 games played.  Last year that number spiked to one sack for every .90 games played.

A Case Against the Multi-Unit “Lock” Bet

There are two general problems with the purported concept that some bets are such locks that they merit a ten, twenty, thirty or forty times increase in your bet size. The first, more obvious problem, is the marketing manipulation involved in these claims. The second, more catastrophic problem, is that with the “10x Unit” wager you are almost certain to lose money betting these “locks,” even if we accept the touts proclamation that the wagers have gone 7-3 against the spread in the last ten wagers. With the facially absurd “40x Unit” wager, you are guaranteed to lose all of your bankroll.