From this, we can conclude that capper with a 57% record ATS would have 13% chance of correctly picking 52 or more winners, the winning range, in the Super Contest. A capper with a 60% record ATS would have a 29% chance of finishing in the winning range in the Super Contest. If, miraculously, you have a legitimate 65% record against the spread, then you would be a prohibitive favorite and expected to finish in the winning range 2 out of every 3 years, or 66% of the time.
There are equal reasons to be both skeptical and optimistic that Lawrence can maintain the dominating level of play he exhibited in 2017 going forward. Last year was not simply Lawrence’s best year, it was a statistical outlier. An anomaly that occurred during a contract year. By way of example, in Lawrence’s first 3 years in Dallas he combined for only 9 sacks in 32 games. That is one sack every 3.55 games played. Last year that number spiked to one sack for every .90 games played.