NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Predictions First Round

Wizards v Raptors:

Regular Season: 2-2

Vegas has the Raptors at -700, which equates to an 87.50% favorite.  The Wizards are +500 which equates to 16.67%.  We have Raptors at 73% favorites, -275, to win the series in seven games.  We have the Wizards at 27% to win the series, +250.  Based on that the line is screaming for a value bet on the underdog Wizards.  While the value is on the Wizards, we are going to stay away.

Teams Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7
Wizards 2% 8% 17% 27%
Raptors 14% 35% 56% 73%

Prediction: Raptors in 6

Bucks v Celtics:

Regular Season: 2-2

Vegas has the Celtics at -150 which equates to a 60% favorite.  The Bucks are +130 which equates to a 43.38% underdog.  We have the Celtics as a 65% favorite, which equates to a -190.  The Bucks are at 35% underdog which equates to +185.  The value here is on the injury depleted Celtics to survive and advance.

Teams Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7
Bucks 3% 11% 22% 35%
Celtics 10% 29% 48% 65%

Prediction: Celtics in 7

Miami v 76ers:

Regular Season: 2-2

Vegas has the 76ers at -550 which equates to a 84.62% favorite.  The Heat are listed at +425 which equates to a 19% underdog.  Our numbers see a similar probability for each team with the 76ers an 81% favorite and the Heat 19% underdog.  Our numbers are assuming Embiid misses only one game.

Teams Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7
Heat 1% 5% 11% 19%
76ers 19% 45% 66% 81%

Prediction: 76ers in 5

Pacers v Cavaliers:

Regular Season: 3-1 Pacers

Vegas has the Cavaliers at -700, which again is a 87.50% favorite.  The Pacers are at +500 which equates to a 16.67% underdog.  This is really hard to get behind.  Vegas has the 4/5 match up going off at the same odds as the 1/8 match up.  This line represents the LeBron factor at its best.  We have the Cavs as a 67% favorite, or -210.  There is absolutely no value on a Cavs wager.  We have the Pacers as a 33% underdog, +200.  There is huge value on the Pacers.

Teams Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7
Pacers 3% 10% 20% 33%
Cavs 11% 30% 50% 67%

Prediction:  Cavaliers in 7